China LED lighting market forecast

The penetration rate of China’s LED lighting market continues to increase, driving the market to develop at a high speed. China’s LED lighting industry has expanded from 7.8 billion yuan to more than 255 billion yuan, and CAGR reached 54.62% in 2009-17. The rapid expansion of the LED general lighting market is mainly due to the expansion of the general lighting industry and the penetration of the LED lighting market. LED lighting Market penetration increased from 0.6% in 2010 to 42% in 2016. We believe that benefiting from the increased energy-saving demand for LED lamps, the replacement effect of LEDs on traditional light sources is expected to continue to be released, and the penetration rate of LED market will continue to increase, driving the LED general lighting industry to maintain rapid growth.

China’s LED lighting market scale, year-on-year growth rate and penetration rate from 2009 to 2007

2009-2007 China LED lighting market penetration rate

Energy-saving needs continue to push LEDs to replace traditional lighting. 19% of the global electricity consumption is used for lighting, and currently only 3/4 of the lighting in global public buildings does not have energy-saving performance. If all these old lighting equipment can be replaced with energy-saving lighting equipment, then It can save 40%-70% of electricity. Starting in 2011, China is a stage every year or two. Starting from the prohibition of import and sales of high-power incandescent lamps, the wattage of the banned sales is reduced in turn, and finally the goal of complete ban is reached. The restrictions on incandescent lamps and the support for LED lights have driven the development of China’s LED lighting market.

With the continuous maturity of LED technology, LED lighting Luminous Efficiency has been increasing, from 20lm/W in 2003 to 160lm/w in 2016, which is 6-10 times that of incandescent lamps, about twice that of fluorescent lamps, and the angle of illumination is only One-third of fluorescent lamps, generally 18W LED tubes can replace 42W traditional fluorescent tubes, 7W bulbs can replace 50W incandescent lamps, and the service life is much longer than traditional lamps, replacing traditional lamps with higher efficiency. The power saving effect is more obvious. On the other hand, the price of LED light source has also steadily declined. Now it has dropped to the price of traditional lamps. There is no resistance to LED lighting replacing traditional lamps.

Domestic LED bulb average price gradually declines (US$)

Domestic LED lighting Luminous Efficiency is rapidly increasing

It is predicted that the scale of China’s LED lighting market will still maintain a growth rate of around 20%. In July 2017, the state has detailed plans for the development of the semiconductor lighting market. According to the planning requirements, by 2020, the overall output value of the semiconductor lighting industry will reach 100 billion yuan, and the sales of LED lighting products will account for the total sales of the entire lighting industry. 70%. Based on this, we assume that the overall market size of China’s LED lighting industry will reach 100 billion yuan in 2020, and the market penetration rate of LED lighting industry will reach 70%. At the same time, based on the fact that LED general lighting accounts for a gradual increase in the LED application market and LED applications account for the gradual increase of the overall LED market size, it is expected that the scale of China’s LED general lighting market will reach 445.2 billion yuan in 2020.

2015-2020 China LED lighting market scale, year-on-year growth rate and market penetration forecast

The penetration rate of the LED lighting market will continue to rise, and the market penetration rate is expected to reach 70% by 2020. In addition, the replacement period of LED lamps is about five years. In 2012, China officially began to implement the policy of disabling incandescent lamps. The scale of China’s LED lighting market is expanding rapidly. In 2018, it is the first update cycle. It is expected that there will still be market space for the replacement of LED lighting fixtures in the future.